As the 2025 Madrid Open reaches its fever pitch, world No. 4 Coco Gauff has thrown down the gauntlet to defending champion and world No. 2 Iga Swiatek ahead of their highly anticipated semifinal clash on May 1. The 21-year-old American, fresh off a commanding 7-5, 6-1 quarterfinal victory over teenage prodigy Mirra Andreeva, exuded confidence in a Tennis Channel interview, issuing a direct warning to Swiatek. “I feel like I have a good chance to win,” Gauff declared, emphasizing her belief in her evolving game and her ability to challenge the clay-court titan on her favorite surface. With the No. 2 ranking and a spot in the final at stake, this 15th chapter in their storied rivalry promises to be a blockbuster at the Caja Mágica.
Gauff’s journey to the semifinals has been a tale of resilience and growth. After a shaky start against Dayana Yastremska, where she dropped the first set 0-6, Gauff stormed back with straight-set wins over Ann Li, Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic, and Andreeva. Her quarterfinal performance was a masterclass, rated a “nine out of 10” by Gauff herself. “I think I played really well and was able to stay composed even when I was facing set points,” she said, reflecting on saving two set points at 4-5 in the first set before reeling off eight consecutive games to dominate Andreeva. Her aggressive forehand and improved movement on clay have silenced doubters, positioning her as a legitimate threat despite Swiatek’s 11-3 head-to-head lead, including a perfect 5-0 record on clay.
Swiatek, a five-time Grand Slam champion, has had a more turbulent path. Her quarterfinal against Madison Keys saw her blanked 0-6 in the first set, a rare stumble on clay, before she rallied for a 0-6, 6-3, 6-2 triumph. “It was one of the weirdest matches I’ve ever played,” Swiatek admitted, crediting her ability to adjust after Keys’ barrage of aces and winners. The Pole, who hasn’t won a WTA title in 2025, is fighting to defend her Madrid crown and secure her No. 2 ranking. A semifinal loss could allow Gauff to overtake her with a tournament victory, as Gauff would amass 6,953 points to Swiatek’s 6,773, per WTA projections.
Gauff’s confidence stems from her recent successes against Swiatek, having won their last two encounters—both on hard courts—at the 2024 WTA Finals (6-3, 6-4) and the 2025 United Cup (6-4, 6-4). “The last two times we played were on hard court, so I’m going to approach it like a different kind of match,” Gauff said, acknowledging Swiatek’s clay-court prowess, where she boasts a staggering 88% win rate and 10 WTA titles, including four French Opens. Yet, Gauff’s mindset has shifted since her 2022 French Open final loss to Swiatek, where she felt “overwhelmed by the moment.” “I thought I’m never going to let myself do that again,” she vowed, noting that she now enters big matches without nerves, focusing on playing her game. “I always feel like I have a good chance against anybody I play,” she added, a testament to her growing mental fortitude.
The stakes are sky-high. Swiatek, who held the No. 1 ranking from April 2022 to October 2024, needs a win to guarantee her No. 2 spot and continue her quest for a third Madrid final in four years. Gauff, the 2023 US Open champion, is chasing her first clay-court final of 2025 and her first WTA 1000 semifinal since 2023. Their rivalry, the most-played WTA 1000 semifinal matchup since 1990, is a clash of styles—Swiatek’s heavy topspin and defensive mastery versus Gauff’s athleticism and aggressive serving. “I’m going to expect her to play some great tennis and probably her best tennis, and I’ll try to match that,” Gauff said, ready to test herself against one of the world’s elite.
As Madrid braces for this epic showdown, Gauff’s warning resonates. Her improved clay game, bolstered by a 25th career top-10 win against Andreeva, and her newfound confidence make her a dangerous underdog. Swiatek, however, remains the favorite, with predictive models giving her a 66% chance of victory. Whether Gauff can upset the clay-court queen or Swiatek reasserts her dominance, this semifinal will be a defining moment in their rivalry and the 2025 season.
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