In a gripping showdown under the Roman night sky, Jessica Pegula, the world number four, saw her Italian Open campaign cut short by a resurgent Elise Mertens on May 10, 2025. The Belgian veteran delivered a masterclass of tactical brilliance, defeating Pegula 7-5, 6-1 in the third round to secure her place in the last 16 at the Foro Italico. The result not only marked Mertens’ first top-10 victory since 2023 but also reshaped the WTA rankings, clearing the path for Coco Gauff to ascend to world number two when the rankings update on May 12, 2025, following Iga Swiatek’s earlier exit.
The match began as a tense battle, with Pegula, known for her relentless baseline game, pushing Mertens to the limit in the first set. The American saved seven of eight break points and fought back from a 0-40 deficit at 5-5, raising hopes of a comeback. However, Mertens’ versatility—blending pinpoint serves, crafty slices, and aggressive net play—proved decisive. She clinched the set 7-5, capitalizing on Pegula’s mounting errors. The second set was a different story, as Mertens surged to a 6-1 rout, her four aces and superior service points won percentage (78% on first serves) overwhelming a visibly deflated Pegula. “I wasn’t the same after that,” Pegula later reflected, acknowledging the momentum shift after the grueling first set. Mertens, now leading their head-to-head 4-1, celebrated her milestone win, which echoed her 2023 Roland Garros upset over Pegula.
Mertens’ victory was a testament to her clay-court prowess, honed through years of navigating slower surfaces with guile and precision. The 29-year-old, who has struggled to replicate her 2019 form when she reached world number 12, seized the moment against a top-tier opponent. Her performance, marked by saving crucial break points and dictating rallies with variety, sets up a fourth-round clash with Russia’s Diana Shnaider, offering a golden opportunity to reach her first Rome quarterfinal since 2020. “This is a big win for me,” Mertens said post-match, her smile reflecting the significance of toppling a player of Pegula’s caliber. The Belgian’s resurgence adds intrigue to a wide-open bottom half of the draw, featuring matchups like Jasmine Paolini versus Jelena Ostapenko and Peyton Stearns against Naomi Osaka.
For Pegula, the loss was a bitter pill, especially after her strong 2025 clay season, which included titles in Charleston and Austin. Despite the defeat, her minimal points to defend on clay will see her rise to world number three, a career-high milestone. The battle for the number two ranking, long contested with Gauff, will now tilt in her compatriot’s favor. Gauff, who advanced to the third round with a 3-6, 6-2, 6-1 win over Victoria Mboko, is set to become the second seed at Roland Garros, a significant boost for the 21-year-old US Open champion. “It’s a huge honor,” Gauff said of her impending ranking leap, though she remained focused on her upcoming match against Magda Linette.
The Rome Open’s evolving narrative reflects the unpredictability of the women’s game. Swiatek’s shock exit to Eva Lys earlier in the tournament opened the door for new contenders, while Pegula’s departure further unlocked the draw. The top half, featuring heavyweights like Aryna Sabalenka and Gauff, promises fierce battles, but the bottom half’s emerging talents—Shnaider, Stearns, or even Elina Svitolina, who faces Danielle Collins—could produce a surprise finalist. Pegula’s earlier loss to Moyuka Uchijima in Madrid, followed by Uchijima’s own defeat to Lys in Rome, underscores the clay season’s volatility.
Pegula and Gauff’s doubles history in Rome adds a layer of context to their intertwined journeys. In 2023, the American duo reached the final, only to fall to Mertens and Storm Hunter 6-4, 6-4. Mertens’ comments then—“I think in the first set we were a little bit more dominant, the ones who were crossing, putting first serves in”—highlighted her serving strength, a factor that resurfaced in her 2025 singles triumph. For Pegula, the defeat stings, but her rise to number three and Gauff’s ascent to number two signal a bright future for American tennis as the French Open looms.
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