The recent shake-up in the WTA rankings has left tennis fans divided, with some celebrating the changes and others less than pleased. The primary beneficiaries of this restructuring include Aryna Sabalenka, who has ascended to the top of the rankings, overtaking Iga Swiatek. For fans of Sabalenka, this is cause for celebration, but for Swiatek’s supporters, it’s a source of frustration. The new rules governing WTA 500 event commitments have played a significant role in this development, creating a major shift in the standings.
As of now, Aryna Sabalenka holds the coveted No. 1 spot in the WTA rankings with 9706 points, while Iga Swiatek trails closely behind with 9665 points. This marks Sabalenka’s ninth week as the top-ranked player in women’s tennis, having first reached that position in 2023 before Swiatek reclaimed the lead later that year. The question that many are asking is: How did this change occur, especially since neither Sabalenka nor Swiatek were in action during the past week?
The answer lies in the WTA’s new rule, which requires players to participate in six WTA 500 events throughout the season. The rule further stipulates that a zero-pointer will be applied for each event a player misses. This has already had a profound impact on the rankings. With just one WTA 500 event left this season—the Japan Open—both Sabalenka and Swiatek have felt the consequences of this rule. Swiatek, who has only competed in two WTA 500 events this year (the United Cup and the Stuttgart Open), saw her points total drop from 9785 to 9665 due to the application of zero-pointers. Meanwhile, Sabalenka, who participated in four WTA 500 events (Brisbane International, Stuttgart Open, Grass Court Championships Berlin, and the Citi Open), also experienced a slight reduction in points, going from 9716 to 9706.
Looking ahead, if both players opt to skip the Japan Open, their points will drop further—Sabalenka’s total would reduce to 9641, while Swiatek’s would fall to 9470. Furthermore, their points from the 2023 WTA Finals will drop off ahead of the 2024 WTA Finals, which could widen the gap between them even more. Based on these projections, Sabalenka could end the year with 9016 points, while Swiatek could find herself with just 7970 points, significantly behind her rival.
The rivalry between Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek has been one of the defining features of women’s tennis over the past few years. Both players have dominated the tour, frequently trading the top two spots in the rankings. Their fierce competition has undoubtedly pushed them to new heights. While Swiatek currently leads their head-to-head (H2H) record 8-4, she has acknowledged the importance of their rivalry. “For sure, when we play against each other, I feel like it’s a challenge. I think it’s also pushing me to become a better and better player, so I think we both kind of need each other to grow,” Swiatek said in a previous interview, highlighting the mutual respect between the two.
However, this season has been more challenging for Swiatek, particularly on surfaces other than clay. She has faced struggles on grass and hard courts, which may have contributed to her decision to part ways with her long-time coach Tomasz Wiktorowski. The Polish star recently brought in Wim Fissette, a seasoned coach with a wealth of experience, to help guide her back to the top. Fissette, who has previously worked with the likes of Kim Clijsters, Simona Halep, Victoria Azarenka, and Naomi Osaka, is seen as the right man for the job. His primary goal, according to his initial comments, is to help Swiatek expand her Grand Slam success beyond her favorite surface, clay. “Our goal is for Swiatek to start adding more Grand Slam titles on other surfaces as well,” Fissette said, making it clear that Swiatek’s focus is on becoming a more versatile player.
Despite winning five titles this season—one more than Sabalenka—Swiatek has struggled to maintain her dominance in big matches, especially outside of clay. Fissette believes that addressing these weaknesses is key to helping Swiatek return to the top. He explained, “Top players want to play big matches, that’s their main motivation. They usually don’t have problems with it, it makes them happy. How do I work? I have information, videos. I prepare my players, we discuss strengths and weaknesses, prepare tactically, and draw conclusions. In the case of tennis players like Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina, you make an analysis and look for a way to beat them.”
The upcoming WTA Finals present a crucial opportunity for both Sabalenka and Swiatek. As the top two seeds, they won’t meet in the group stages, meaning the earliest they could face off would be in the semifinals. Even if Swiatek were to win the title, Sabalenka could still finish the year as world number one if she manages to win at least two of her group-stage matches. This scenario adds a layer of intrigue to their rivalry and sets the stage for a thrilling conclusion to the season.
With just a few weeks remaining in the 2024 tennis calendar, the race for the year-end No. 1 ranking is heating up. Swiatek will need to pull out all the stops if she hopes to reclaim the top spot from Sabalenka, while Sabalenka will be determined to finish the year as the best player in the world. Whether the new WTA rules are viewed as a boon or a bane depends largely on which player you support, but one thing is certain—the rivalry between Sabalenka and Swiatek is far from over, and tennis fans are in for a thrilling ride as the season reaches its climax.