The WTA Rankings are the recognised snapshot of the current pecking order in women’s tennis, but that may not be the best way to gauge current form.
Elena Rybakina’s impressive victory at the Stuttgart Open last week confirmed she is a match for the best players in the game, with her semi-final victory against world No 1 Iga Swiatek allowing her to extend her winning record to 4-2 against the Polish star in their head-to-head battle.
A defeat for world No 2 Aryna Sabalenka against reigning Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova at the same event in Stuttgart continued a downturn in form for the player who started this year in sparkling fashion with a win at the Australian Open.
So while the WTA Ranking is the gauge used to produce seedings for major tournaments, a more accurate snapshot of current form is provided by the WTA Race ranking.
The WTA rankings are based on a rolling 52-week calculation, yet the WTA Race is based on ranking points collected in a calendar year.
With around a third of the 2024 season played, the updated numbers for the WTA can offer a more vivid snapshot of the women’s game heading into this week’s Madrid Open.
THE BIG WINNERS
Danielle Collins is ranked at No 15 in the WTA Rankings, but her position in the WTA Race is up at a lofty No 4 after her wins at the Miami Open and in Charleston.
The American star, who is set to retire later this year, has enjoyed a surge in form that ensures she will be a player to watch heading into the French Open and Wimbledon.
Great Britain’s Katie Boulter is another player on the way up, according to the WTA Race.
She is at a career high of No 28 in the WTA Rankings, but she is sitting at No 20 in the WTA Race and a strong clay court season will set her up for an appearance on her favoured grass court surface in June and July.
Boulter’s fellow Brit Emma Raducanu is also on the rise, with her leap of 82 places in the WTA Rankings confirmed after her run to the quarter-finals in Stuttgart, with a mark of her progress highlighted by her position at No 58 in the Race rankings.
One win for Raducanu in Madrid will take her back into the top 200 of the WTA Rankings and she could get close to the top 150 if she enjoys a good run in the Spanish capital.
ON THE WAY DOWN
Ons Jabeur is under a big threat of a major fall in the rankings over the next few weeks.
The Tunisian star has been struggling for form and fitness in recent months, but she needs to find her form quickly as she has a huge number of ranking points to defend from 2023.
The points from her run of the quarter-finals of the French Open and the final at Wimbledon last summer will see a little over 1,700 points dropping off her current WTA Ranking and her form this year suggests she will struggle to defend that total.
She is down at No 75 in the WTA Race points list for 2024 and needs to flick the winning switch quickly to get back on track.
Another player in danger of a big slide is America’s Jessica Pegula.
World No 5 Pegula is down in 19th position on the WTA Race list, as she has struggled to string consistent wins together over recent months and she has pulled out of the Madrid Open this week due to injury. Now her position in the top ten of the world rankings will come under threat unless she gets back to top form quickly.
Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova is also facing a big few months, with the 2,000 points she won at the All England Club as she won her first Grand Slam title will dropping off her points total at the start of July.
Unless she adds some points to her WTA Ranking in the next few weeks, she could drop out of the world’s top 20, so her return to form with a run to the semi-finals in Stuttgart last week was well timed.
The top eight players in the WTA Race will qualify for the WTA Finals in Saudi Arabia in November, with world No 1 Iga Swiatek already on her way to securing her place in that lucrative event after her solid start to the year.
TOP 10 IN WTA RACE
- Iga Swiatek (Poland) 3335
- Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan) 3193
- Aryna Sabalenka (Belarus) 2628
- Danille Collins (USA) 2022
- Coco Gauff (USA) 1873
- Qinwen Zheng (USA) 1845
- Marta Kostyuk (Ukraine) 1675
- Jasmine Paolini (Italy) 1580
- Jelena Ostapenko (Latvia) 1554
- Anna Kalinskaya (Russia) 1435