Aryna Sabalenka, currently leading the WTA rankings with a 1,046-point advantage over Iga Swiatek, is entering the WTA Finals in Riyadh as the clear frontrunner to secure the coveted Year-End No. 1 ranking. This significant lead was achieved following adjustments in Swiatek’s points due to “zero pointers” applied for missed WTA 500 events, as well as the loss of points she had earned from last year’s WTA Finals. Sabalenka now has a strong foothold at the top, aiming to finish the year as the world No. 1, a spot she reclaimed recently and currently holds for her 10th week overall.
Last season, Sabalenka had briefly ascended to the world No. 1 ranking after a spectacular run at the US Open, where she clinched the title. Her reign lasted eight weeks before coming to an end with the close of the season. Now, she is set to return to the top position with even greater determination. Following her achievement of reaching the No. 1 spot again, the three-time Grand Slam champion posted a confident note on X, formerly known as Twitter: “N1…. Let’s see for how long this time.”
The potential pathways to the Year-End No. 1 position are complex, especially as both players have had outstanding seasons and are set to clash at the Finals. If Sabalenka wins all three of her group-stage matches, she will secure her position without depending on any other results. Winning just one or two Round Robin matches and then making it to the finals would also be sufficient for her. On the other hand, Swiatek’s path is narrower; to even have a shot at the Year-End No. 1, she must win all five of her matches and even then, she could still fall short if Sabalenka performs strongly. Should Swiatek falter in any of her group matches, Sabalenka would need just two group-stage wins to clinch the title. Alternatively, if Swiatek goes undefeated while Sabalenka wins only two group matches and loses in the semifinals, Swiatek would then claim the Year-End No. 1 spot.
Sabalenka, who captured the US Open title this year and is known for her powerful baseline game, is feeling the heat of being the player to beat. Former world No. 9 CoCo Vandeweghe weighed in on the added pressure that comes with this ranking. “For so long it’s been Iga that’s had that big target on her back, and everyone’s chasing Iga to take that No 1 ranking,” Vandeweghe commented on Tennis Channel’s *Inside-In* podcast. “Now, Sabalenka’s going to have that mantle, and what’s she going to be able to do with it? Can she hold onto that? Can she step up to that occasion?”
As Sabalenka prepares to step onto the court with her sights set firmly on the No. 1 ranking, Swiatek has made strategic changes to her team to maximize her chances. Swiatek’s new coach, Wim Fissette, who has a reputation for his meticulous preparation, has said he’s confident in readying the Polish player for her upcoming matches. “Top players want to play big matches, that’s their main motivation,” Fissette explained. “How do I work? I have information, videos. I prepare my players, we discuss strengths and weaknesses, prepare tactically and draw conclusions. In the case of tennis players like Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina, you make an analysis and look for a way to beat them.”
The addition of Fissette brings fresh dynamics to Swiatek’s game, and Swiatek herself has been vocal about her excitement at having him on board. Despite her absence during the Asian swing, which saw Sabalenka expand her lead, Swiatek has set her focus on a strong comeback at the WTA Finals, aiming not only to close the points gap but to demonstrate her growth under Fissette’s guidance.
Interestingly, Sabalenka expressed disappointment at not having Swiatek to compete against during recent tournaments in Asia, where the rivalry could have intensified. “I mean, I love having this competition and I love seeing her in the draw. Yeah, I love to, like, get to the finals and face her in the finals. It’s always great battles. I always enjoy fights against her,” Sabalenka explained. “But, I mean, I hope she’ll figure out the coach situation and she’ll be back in the Finals in her best shape.”
As the WTA Finals approach, the stakes are incredibly high for both athletes. The event not only offers a prestigious title but also a definitive answer to the season-long battle for supremacy. Sabalenka, despite holding the advantage, must contend with the mounting pressure of her newfound status as the player everyone is chasing. She is acutely aware that as the top-ranked player, she is now the one with the target on her back. Meanwhile, Swiatek, revitalized under new coaching, has a clear objective: to fight her way back to the summit, even if it means taking down the player who dethroned her.
This season-ending showdown in Riyadh promises to be a thrilling climax to the 2024 WTA season. Both Sabalenka and Swiatek have demonstrated their capabilities and mental fortitude, battling through a year of ups and downs. Now, as they enter the WTA Finals, each will be looking to make her mark, aiming to end the year as the undisputed No. 1 in women’s tennis.