There is little that Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina have yet to achieve in tennis.
Both Grand Slam champions and feared competitors, the two have proven themselves at the top of the game, becoming some of the most dominant players on the WTA Tour.
But while they have had huge successes in their career, there is one milestone neither has yet achieved: the world No 1 ranking.
Since the Australian Open last year, the top two spots in the WTA Rankings have been held comfortably by Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, with the Pole currently in top spot.
However, there may be an opportunity for either Gauff or Rybakina to reach a career-high of second this year – and potentially even take the world No 1 ranking.
Which of the two is most likely to do that in 2024, though?
As it stands
It is advantage Gauff in the current WTA Rankings, with the world No 3 holding an almost 1,000-point lead over world No 4 Rybakina.
The US star has 7,258 ranking points, with Rybakina on 6,293 points after her title in Stuttgart last weekend.
But the Kazakh has been in better form this season, sitting second in the WTA Race with three tournament victories to her name – with Gauff sitting in fifth.
The world No 1 ranking is a little distant for both currently, with Swiatek clear on 10,560 points as she celebrates her 100th week at the very top.
However, Madrid provides an initial chance for both women to start closing the gap to Swiatek – and to current world No 2 Sabalenka.
Clay court ramifications
Gauff is in a particularly strong position; with just third round points to defend in Madrid and at the Italian Open, there is little rankings pressure on the 20-year-old across the coming few weeks.
And she could be up to world No 2 as soon as early May, with Aryna Sabalenka defending 1000 ranking points in Madrid after winning the title 12 months ago.
In the live WTA Rankings, Gauff is up to second and around 350 points clear of Sabalenka – meaning the onus is on the Australian Open champion to once again produce a good run in the Spanish capital.
Gauff only has quarter-final points to defend at the French Open, while Sabalenka has semi-final points to defend – and Swiatek will be defending the title, and the 2,000 points that come with it.
The Pole also has finalist points to defend this fortnight, handing the American another slight opening.
It is a little tougher for Rybakina to close the gap this clay season.
The Kazakh lost her opening match in Madrid in 2023, so has effectively nothing to lose in the Spanish capital, but – as defending champion – has 1,000 points to defend in Rome.
Defending those points may halt her chance to rise significantly this clay season – though she only has third-round points to defend at Roland Garros.
A summer surge?
Further ahead, things look very good for Rybakina.
The 24-year-old did not win a title after Rome in 2023, reaching the quarter-final at Wimbledon and round three at the US Open, and the last four at WTA 1000 events in Canada and Beijing.
She has some points to defend, but there are huge opportunities for her to gain ground – particularly at the Slams – while Gauff faces more pressure.
A round-one loss at Wimbledon last year means Gauff can leap significantly at SW19, but she has titles to defend at the WTA 500 event in Washington, the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati, and at the US Open – leaving her with around 3,500 points to defend overall.
Those three events make up close to half of her current ranking points, and she will need to improve her current form to maintain those points – and at the very least hold off Rybakina.
Sabalenka has Wimbledon semi-final and US Open final points to defend, while Swiatek has big points to defend at the WTA Finals and in Beijing – though can gain points at Wimbledon and Flushing Meadows.
Who can capitalise?
Swiatek is No 1 in the WTA Race at the moment and she may still be the favourite to hold onto the world No 1 ranking this year, especially if she defends her French Open crown.
But of Rybakina and Gauff, it is arguably the 2022 Wimbledon champion who has the best chance to seal her place in history this season and become world No 1.
Rybakina’s health and fitness may be her biggest obstacle, but with the form she has demonstrated across the opening quarter of the season, it appears she will be a threat on every surface.
And having discovered the formula to beat those around her at the very top, the Kazakh’s rise to the top spot may come sooner rather than later.
not a bad day at the office for Elena Rybakina 🏆😎#PorscheTennis pic.twitter.com/pKJxSOI8wm
— wta (@WTA) April 21, 2024