The race for the coveted No. 2 seed at the 2025 US Open has taken a dramatic turn, with Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek locked in a fierce battle for the world No. 2 ranking following unexpected early exits at the Canadian Open in Montreal. Both players, among the WTA’s brightest stars, suffered shock defeats in the round of 16 on August 3, 2025, leaving their rankings duel unresolved as they head to the Cincinnati Open, the final WTA 1000 event before the Flushing Meadows major begins on August 24. The outcome of this tournament will determine which player secures the crucial No. 2 seed, ensuring they avoid world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka until a potential final, a strategic advantage in the grueling Grand Slam draw.
Gauff, the 21-year-old reigning French Open champion, entered Montreal as the top seed in Sabalenka’s absence but fell 6-1, 6-4 to 18-year-old Canadian wildcard Victoria Mboko. The American struggled, landing just 43% of her first serves and committing 23 unforced errors, unable to convert any of her five break points against the world No. 85. Despite the loss, Gauff added 120 points to her tally, bringing her to 7,789 ranking points. Her Canadian Open campaign was marked by earlier battles, including a 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(2) win over Danielle Collins, marred by 23 double faults, and a comeback from a set down against Veronika Kudermetova, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2, with 14 double faults. “I don’t think it’s fair,” Gauff said, dismissing comparisons with Mboko, emphasizing her focus on growth despite the setback.
Swiatek, the 23-year-old Wimbledon champion and world No. 3, had a golden opportunity to close the 856-point gap with Gauff after the American’s exit. A title run in Montreal could have propelled her to 7,813 points, overtaking Gauff. However, the Pole’s hopes were dashed by 16th seed Clara Tauson, who secured a 7-6(7-1), 6-3 victory in the fourth round, also earning 120 points. Swiatek’s total now stands at 6,933 points, maintaining the 856-point deficit. “I still feel like I kind of need to transition on hard courts,” Swiatek admitted, reflecting on her struggles to regain her rhythm after a stellar grass-court season, where she won her first Wimbledon title and extended a nine-match winning streak. “I feel like I did kind of the same mistakes I did at the end of my hard court season in March.”
The Cincinnati Open, starting August 7, is now the decisive battleground. Gauff, who exited in the second round there in 2024, defends just 10 points, while Swiatek has none to defend after her 2024 semifinal points were voided due to a positive test for trimetazidine, later cleared as unintentional. For Swiatek to overtake Gauff, she must win the Cincinnati title, worth 1,000 points, and hope Gauff exits before the quarterfinals. A title would bring Swiatek to 7,933 points, surpassing Gauff unless the American matches or exceeds her performance. “I’m just going in with confidence,” Gauff said earlier this year about facing Swiatek, a mindset she’ll need after her recent 6-1, 6-1 Madrid Open win over the Pole, her third straight victory in their rivalry, which Swiatek still leads 11-3.
Gauff’s season has been a blend of brilliance and inconsistency. Her French Open title and Madrid Open final run, where she handed Swiatek one of her worst defeats, highlight her potential. Yet, early exits at Wimbledon and Washington, D.C., expose vulnerabilities. Swiatek, with six Grand Slam titles, including four at Roland Garros, remains a formidable force, her 114-27 WTA 1000 win record second only to Serena Williams since 2009. Her Montreal loss, however, echoed past hard-court struggles, prompting her to note, “These matches are also kind of to learn again.”
The No. 2 seed offers a tactical edge, keeping the winner out of Sabalenka’s half in New York. With Sabalenka’s 12,225 points far ahead, the Gauff-Swiatek duel is the WTA’s most compelling subplot. As Cincinnati looms, both players face pressure to find form on hard courts, with Gauff’s fighting spirit—“My favorite thing about Coco is her fighting spirit,” said Ons Jabeur—and Swiatek’s tactical consistency setting the stage for a thrilling showdown.
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