The 2025 Canadian Open in Montreal has delivered a seismic shift in the WTA rankings race, with Coco Gauff’s unexpected fourth-round defeat to Canadian wildcard Victoria Mboko opening a golden opportunity for Iga Swiatek to reclaim the world No. 2 spot. Gauff, the top seed and reigning French Open champion, fell 6-1, 6-4 to the 18-year-old Mboko in just 62 minutes, a loss that exposed her ongoing struggles with consistency on hard courts. Swiatek, riding a nine-match winning streak and fresh off her Wimbledon triumph, now stands poised to capitalize on this upset and surge back up the rankings, setting the stage for a thrilling battle as the US Open approaches.
Gauff entered the Canadian Open with 7,669 points, holding a firm grip on the No. 2 ranking. Her fourth-round exit added 120 points, bringing her total to 7,789. However, her performance in Montreal was marred by persistent serving issues, including a staggering 43 double faults across three matches. “I haven’t played the best this tournament, so I knew that it would be tough,” Gauff admitted after her loss to Mboko, acknowledging the Canadian’s aggressive play. “I just felt like I could do better today, but I also knew that if I took my foot off the gas a little bit, that she would take advantage of those moments, and she did.” Her early exit, coupled with the absence of world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka due to fatigue, has left the draw wide open for Swiatek to make her move.
Swiatek, currently ranked No. 3 with 6,933 points, has been a dominant force in Montreal, dropping just eight games in her first two matches against Guo Hanyu (6-3, 6-1) and Eva Lys (6-2, 6-2). “I just focused on myself and knew what my plan was,” Swiatek said after her win over Lys, emphasizing her tactical clarity. “Eva played some great down the lines and was able to play some fast balls. It wasn’t easy. I’m happy I just did my job.” Her efficiency on court, breaking opponents’ serves with ease and saving break points, underscores her readiness to seize this opportunity. By reaching the fourth round, Swiatek has added 120 points to her tally, bringing her to 7,028 if she advances to the quarterfinals against Clara Tauson.
To overtake Gauff, Swiatek must win the Canadian Open title, which would boost her points to 7,813, edging her 24 points ahead of Gauff’s 7,789. This would mark a triumphant return to No. 2, a position she held consistently from March 2022 until earlier this year, when a less successful clay season saw her slip to No. 8. Her recent Wimbledon victory, where she dropped just 35 games—the fewest by a women’s champion since Martina Navratilova in 1990—has reignited her confidence. “I was really competing throughout the whole two weeks,” Swiatek said of her Wimbledon run. “No matter what happened before the season, I just trusted the process and the things that my coach wanted me to do.”
The path to the title is far from straightforward. Swiatek faces a tough test against Tauson, a rising star ranked No. 19, in the round of 16. Beyond that, potential clashes with top-10 players like Amanda Anisimova or Madison Keys loom in the later rounds. However, with Gauff, third seed Jessica Pegula, and fourth seed Mirra Andreeva out of the tournament, Swiatek is the highest-ranked player remaining, giving her a clear edge. “I feel like every day I made a bit of progress,” Swiatek noted, reflecting on her adjustment to hard courts after her grass-court success. Her 115 WTA 1000 wins, second only to Serena Williams in fewer matches, highlight her prowess at this level.
Gauff’s loss to Mboko, who converted four of five break points and played with fearless precision, has shifted the rankings narrative. “Coming into this match, I was so locked in,” Mboko said, her composure belying her age. For Swiatek, the Canadian Open is not just about reclaiming No. 2 but also about building momentum for the Cincinnati Open and the US Open, where she won in 2022. Her rivalry with Gauff, marked by a 11-4 head-to-head lead despite Gauff’s recent wins at the 2024 WTA Finals and 2025 United Cup, adds intrigue to this rankings chase. If Swiatek can maintain her form and claim her first Canadian Open title, she’ll not only surpass Gauff but also close the gap on Sabalenka’s No. 1 spot, setting up a blockbuster North American hard-court swing.
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