How Novak Djokovic’s Cincinnati Open withdrawal could affect his ranking before the US Open

Novak Djokovic, the 24-time Grand Slam champion, has sent shockwaves through the tennis world by withdrawing from the 2025 Cincinnati Open, a key ATP Masters 1000 event running from August 7 to 18. The decision, officially attributed to a “non-medical” reason, follows his absence from the ongoing Canadian Open in Toronto, meaning the 38-year-old Serbian will enter the US Open—starting August 25—without a single competitive match since his Wimbledon semifinal loss to Jannik Sinner on July 11. This bold move, prioritizing rest over match practice, could jeopardize his world No. 6 ranking, as rising stars like Ben Shelton and Alex de Minaur close the gap in the ATP standings, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle at Flushing Meadows.

Djokovic’s withdrawal from Cincinnati, where he triumphed in 2018, 2020, and 2023, comes on the heels of a physically taxing season. At Wimbledon, he suffered a “nasty” and “awkward” fall during his quarterfinal win over Flavio Cobolli, requiring treatment on his upper left leg. This injury compromised his performance against Sinner, who dominated in straight sets. “It’s just age, the wear and tear of the body. As much as I’m taking care of it, the reality hits me right now,” Djokovic said post-Wimbledon, reflecting on the physical toll of best-of-five-set matches. “The longer the tournament goes, the worse the condition gets. I feel like I’m going into the match with the tank half empty. It’s just not possible to win a match like that.” His candid admission highlights the challenges of competing at 38, especially against younger, relentless players like Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who have claimed the last seven majors between them.

The Serbian’s decision to skip both Toronto and Cincinnati mirrors his strategy last year, when he withdrew from Cincinnati after winning Olympic gold in Paris, defeating Alcaraz in a thrilling final. That choice paid off, as he clinched his 24th Grand Slam at the 2023 US Open. However, this year’s absence carries risks, as Djokovic has no points to defend in Cincinnati, having missed the 2024 event. Currently holding 4,130 ATP points, he leads Shelton by 610 points and de Minaur by 650 in the Live ATP Rankings. Both players, still competing in Toronto, face off in the quarterfinals, and a deep run—especially a title win—could see either surpass Djokovic. “There’s not a lot of players that reached that milestone,” Djokovic said of his 500th tour-level win earlier this year, underscoring his desire for more victories. Yet, a potential drop to No. 8 could mean a tougher US Open draw, with top-four seeds like Sinner, Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, or Taylor Fritz looming in the quarterfinals.

Djokovic’s sparse 2025 schedule, with a 26-9 record, reflects a deliberate focus on preserving his body for Grand Slams. His season highlights include a 100th career title in Geneva and semifinal runs at the Australian Open, Roland Garros, and Wimbledon, though injuries—a hamstring issue in Australia and a groin problem in Toronto—have disrupted his campaign. “I’ve proven that this year. But I guess playing best-of-five, particularly this year, has been a real struggle for me physically,” he noted after Wimbledon. His withdrawal from Cincinnati, coupled with his absence from hard-court events since a third-round loss at Indian Wells in March, raises questions about his match sharpness. However, his participation in the revamped US Open mixed doubles event with Olga Danilovic, starting August 19, could provide some competitive rhythm.

The tennis community is abuzz with speculation about Djokovic’s strategy. Some see it as a calculated move to conserve energy, emulating Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal’s late-career calendar management. Others, however, view it as a gamble, especially with Shelton and de Minaur’s strong hard-court form. Shelton, who reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals and Washington semifinals, and de Minaur, a consistent performer, could capitalize on Djokovic’s absence. “We certainly understand that it is a quick turnaround from his Olympic triumph to come to Cincinnati,” said tournament director Bob Moran, referencing Djokovic’s 2024 withdrawal. This year’s decision, though, has sparked concern among fans, with some on social media suggesting he’s “putting it all on the line for one last slam.”

As Djokovic vacations in Greece and Croatia, delaying his return to training, his focus is clear: a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam at the US Open, where he’s a four-time champion. His 2023 Cincinnati final against Alcaraz, a 5-7, 7-6(7), 7-6(4) epic, showcased his resilience, but his lack of recent hard-court matches could test his endurance against a field led by Sinner, the defending US Open champion. With the mixed doubles event offering a chance to ease back into competition, Djokovic’s gamble on rest over reps will define his quest to remain tennis’s greatest champion.

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