As the clock ticks down to a seismic verdict in Manchester City’s Financial Fair Play saga, the football world is abuzz with speculation about what might happen if the unthinkable occurs: relegation from the Premier League. Pep Guardiola, the mastermind behind City’s glittering trophy haul, commands a 28-man squad brimming with talent, but the looming threat of a drop to the Championship has insiders and fans alike pondering who would stay and who would bolt. With over 130 charges of financial rule breaches hanging over the club—spanning from 2009 to 2018—and a decision expected soon after a 12-week hearing wrapped up late last year, the stakes couldn’t be higher. If found guilty, punishments could range from fines to points deductions or even expulsion, and the ripple effects on this star-studded roster would be profound.
Guardiola, who recently inked a contract extension tying him to City until 2027, has made it clear he’s not going anywhere, even if the club plummets down the leagues. “I will be here,” he declared, his defiance a beacon for a squad facing an uncertain future. Yet, for the players, the calculus is different. The Premier League champions boast a roster packed with global icons and rising stars, each with their own ambitions, market value, and loyalty to the Etihad cause. Should relegation strike—a punishment some argue could follow a hefty points deduction designed to sink them—here’s how the 28-man squad might shake out, ranked from those most likely to flee to the diehards who’d stick it out.
At the top of the exit list sits Erling Haaland, the Norwegian goal machine whose 108 strikes in 115 appearances have made him a phenomenon. At 24, with a Ballon d’Or in his sights and interest from giants like Real Madrid swirling, Haaland’s trajectory screams upward. “He’s a once-in-a-generation talent,” one pundit mused, suggesting a move to La Liga or PSG would be inevitable if City’s Premier League status evaporated. His £162 million release clause might drop in the Championship, but his ambition likely wouldn’t. Close behind is Kevin De Bruyne, the 33-year-old Belgian wizard whose vision has defined City’s dominance. With his contract expiring in 2025 and whispers of a Saudi Pro League move growing louder, a relegation could hasten his exit from a club he’s served for a decade.
Further down the pecking order, players like Bernardo Silva and Jack Grealish occupy a murky middle ground. Silva, 30, has long flirted with a return to Portugal or a stint in Spain, his technical brilliance a hot commodity despite his loyalty to Guardiola. Grealish, the £100 million man, might see his stock dip in a lower tier, but his England ambitions could push him toward a Premier League rival. “I’m motivated to win as many big titles as possible,” Guardiola has said of his squad, a sentiment that might not align with Championship football for these high-flyers. Young guns like Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol, meanwhile, present a conundrum—Foden’s deep City roots might anchor him, while Gvardiol’s £77 million price tag could tempt a cash-strapped club to cash in.
The stayers, though, are the heartbeat of this squad. Rodri, the Spanish midfield metronome, has a bond with Guardiola forged in Champions League glory, and at 28, he’s in his prime—unlikely to jump ship even if the ship sinks. “Only the team and family know what we’ve been through,” Guardiola once reflected, a nod to the resilience that players like Rodri embody. Ederson, the Brazilian goalkeeper, and Rúben Dias, the defensive rock, also rank low on the exit scale—both are leaders whose commitment transcends league status. Then there’s the youth brigade—Rico Lewis, James McAtee, Oscar Bobb—academy products who’d likely see a relegation as a chance to shine rather than a cue to leave.
The verdict, expected as early as Easter, hangs like a storm cloud over the Etihad. City’s legal team insists on their innocence, pointing to “irrefutable evidence” of compliance, but the Premier League’s case—built on years of financial scrutiny—looms large. If the axe falls, the fallout would test Guardiola’s rebuilding genius and the loyalty of a squad that’s tasted unparalleled success. “In one month, I think there will be a verdict and a sentence,” Guardiola predicted earlier this year, his calm belying the chaos that could follow. For now, the 28-man roster stands on the brink, a mix of mercenaries and loyalists awaiting a fate that could reshape Manchester City’s future—and their own.
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