The final chapter of Novak Djokovic’s extraordinary tennis career is taking a new turn as his rankings have seen a significant slide over the past few months, and the consequences of his decline are becoming increasingly apparent. With the ATP Finals in Turin just around the corner, the Serbian’s rapid fall in the rankings will be sealed at the conclusion of the event—potentially marking a pivotal moment in his bid for more Grand Slam titles in 2025. As his ranking drops and doubts about his long-term commitment to the tour surface, the 37-year-old faces a crossroads that could shape his future in the sport.
### The Rapid Decline
Djokovic’s decision to withdraw from key tournaments in the latter part of the 2023 season, including the ATP Finals and the Paris Masters, has accelerated his slide down the ATP rankings. As one of the most decorated players in tennis history, the 23-time Grand Slam champion’s decline is particularly notable given the rapidity with which he has fallen from his customary position at the top of the tennis world.
Last Monday, his live ATP ranking showed the latest blow to his total points: Djokovic’s 1,000 points from the Paris Masters, where he was the defending champion, vanished from his tally, as did the 1,300 points he earned for winning the ATP Finals in 2022. These points losses have dropped him from his former ranking of No. 1 to his current standing of No. 6 in the world. With several players, including Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, and Alex de Minaur, just a few points behind, Djokovic’s drop could continue at the ATP Finals.
This could see him fall to No. 9 in the world by the end of the year, which, while not a catastrophic setback in itself, presents a number of challenges, particularly with the Australian Open on the horizon in January. While Djokovic has often insisted that rankings no longer concern him, the reality is that his shift to a part-time schedule in the twilight of his career may present a significant challenge to his goals, especially as younger stars like Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner continue to rise.
### The Significance of a Potential Drop to No. 9
If Djokovic does indeed fall to No. 9 by the time the ATP Finals conclude, it will have significant ramifications for his Australian Open campaign in 2024. While the Serbian has long been a dominant force at the Australian Open, winning an unprecedented 10 titles in Melbourne, his lower ranking could mean a much tougher path to securing his 11th crown.
Being seeded No. 9 would potentially pit Djokovic against higher-ranked players in the early rounds of the tournament. For instance, a fourth-round match against world No. 1 Jannik Sinner could be on the cards, a player who has already beaten Djokovic in the semi-finals of the 2023 Australian Open. Djokovic’s struggles against the younger generation—particularly Sinner and Alcaraz—have become more pronounced in recent months, and an early clash with either player could severely hinder his chances of adding to his Grand Slam tally.
Moreover, Djokovic’s lack of match play could be an issue. The veteran has withdrawn from key tournaments, citing injury concerns and a desire to manage his schedule more carefully as he approaches the later stages of his career. If he does not play warm-up events ahead of Melbourne, he could face a potentially difficult path early on, trying to find his rhythm in the first few rounds against players who have already had match time and momentum going into the tournament.
Additionally, Djokovic could also face the possibility of playing against other top-ranked players, including world No. 2 Alcaraz, who has been dominant in 2023, and former US Open champion Daniil Medvedev. If the seeding holds, Djokovic could face a brutal route to the final, facing opponents like Sinner, Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, and Alcaraz in succession—a series of daunting challenges even for a player of his legendary stature. For a player who has already conquered so much, the prospect of a difficult run like this could prove overwhelming, especially without the match sharpness that comes from a packed tournament schedule.
### Mouratoglou’s Take: Djokovic Can Still Win Majors
Despite the challenges, Djokovic’s former coach, Patrick Mouratoglou, has expressed optimism about the Serbian’s ability to win more Grand Slam titles. Speaking ahead of the UTS Grand Final in London, Mouratoglou suggested that while Djokovic had endured a “bad year” in 2023, he is still capable of competing with—and even beating—the younger stars on the ATP tour.
“I think he had a very bad year, but it came after an incredible year,” Mouratoglou said. “Let’s not forget that only last year he won three Grand Slams and played in the final of the other. So we shouldn’t forget that was just one year ago, not ten years ago, just one year ago.”
Mouratoglou went on to emphasize that Djokovic’s level of play, while not as dominant as it once was, is still capable of matching the best. “He won the Olympics, which was his main focus this year, beating Carlos in the final, playing fantastic tennis, so he is not far away,” he continued. “He can still beat them [Sinner and Alcaraz]. It’s very hard, there was a lot of margin before, but now there is none. When he plays them, I think anyone can win, but I don’t think he’s far behind. I think he can still win Grand Slams, I’m sure about it.”
### Motivation: Djokovic’s Greatest Challenge
Mouratoglou also pointed to motivation as one of Djokovic’s biggest challenges moving forward. Having spent the majority of his career fighting with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal for the top spot in men’s tennis, Djokovic has already achieved everything that most players could only dream of. As Nadal moves towards the end of his career and Federer has already retired, it’s easy to see how Djokovic’s motivation could wane, especially after securing a record number of Grand Slam titles.
“For Novak, it’s only about his motivation,” Mouratoglou said. “I understand that he struggles with it at the moment because all his career was about beating the other two and being better than them, that was the fight of his life in tennis, and he won.”
Now that Nadal is stepping away, Mouratoglou suggests Djokovic might be grappling with finding new reasons to compete at the highest level. “To keep his motivation now, it’s very difficult. Now that Rafa is retiring, the whole year that was the problem, that’s how I see it. This year for Novak was tough.”
Despite these hurdles, Mouratoglou remains hopeful that Djokovic can find renewed motivation, particularly as the Grand Slam season starts anew. “I hope this difficult year is something he will be able to use to feed his motivation and come back next year as good as the previous one,” Mouratoglou added. “If that happens, we’ll have a fight between those three [Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner] that is going to be unbelievable.”
### Looking Ahead: Can Djokovic Still Add to His Legacy?
The reality of Djokovic’s rankings drop and the physical and mental challenges he faces as he approaches the twilight of his career cannot be ignored. But as the Serbian prepares for what may be one of his final pushes for major titles, there is no doubt that he still has the potential to challenge for the sport’s most prestigious trophies. With the Australian Open on the horizon, the 2024 season could prove to be a defining moment in Djokovic’s career, as he seeks to prove that even in the face of injury, a drop in rankings, and increasing competition from younger stars, he remains a force to be reckoned with.
Time will tell if Djokovic can summon the necessary motivation and physical prowess to add another Grand Slam to his already record-breaking career, but as always with Novak Djokovic, nothing is ever impossible.