Numbers certify Carlos Alcaraz’s difficulties in the Masters 1000

Carlos Alcaraz’s 2024 season has been a story of highs and some unexpected lows. While he captured two Grand Slam titles this year and took the title at the prestigious Indian Wells Masters 1000, his year wasn’t without its struggles. At just 21 years old, the young Spaniard from Murcia has achieved a rare feat by winning both the French Open and Wimbledon in the same calendar year, becoming the youngest player ever to do so. This historic double has cemented Alcaraz’s reputation as one of the game’s brightest stars and toughest competitors. Yet, as the season draws to a close, Alcaraz finds himself in an intense battle for consistency and rankings, with his friend and fierce competitor, Jannik Sinner, taking the lead in the ATP rankings due to his more consistent performances throughout the year.

Alcaraz’s 2024 season highlights are remarkable. Along with his Grand Slam wins, he claimed an ATP 500 title in Beijing after defeating Sinner in what was considered one of the most thrilling matches of the year. He also earned a silver medal at the Paris Olympics, making an impressive run before being stopped just short of gold. These achievements demonstrate his exceptional talent and drive, yet Sinner has outpaced him in overall consistency. The Italian, known for his solid performance across tournaments, currently sits ahead of Alcaraz in the rankings due to his unwavering ability to go deep in every event he enters. In contrast, Alcaraz’s season has been marked by brilliant performances at select events but also a handful of surprising early exits in some key tournaments, particularly in the Masters 1000 series.

While Alcaraz dominated in Grand Slam tournaments this year—except for a surprising early exit at the US Open—his results in the Masters 1000 events have been mixed. His first big title of the year came at Indian Wells, where he defended his 2023 title with flair and skill. However, that form was difficult to maintain. In Miami, he fell in the quarterfinals to Grigor Dimitrov and was then sidelined for both Monte Carlo and Rome due to a nagging forearm injury. By the time he returned for the Madrid Masters, Alcaraz was still struggling with discomfort and ultimately fell to Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals. His momentum suffered further when he skipped the Montreal Masters due to scheduling conflicts following his Olympic run, and in Cincinnati, he was eliminated in the second round by veteran Gael Monfils.

As the season continued, Alcaraz encountered more unexpected challenges. In Shanghai, he faced an upset loss to Tomas Machac in the quarterfinals, a match that disappointed fans who were eager to see a rematch with Sinner. His campaign at the Rolex Paris Masters also ended sooner than expected when he was defeated by Ugo Humbert in the round of 16. In contrast to his nearly 85% win rate in Grand Slams, Alcaraz managed only a 75% win rate in Masters 1000 events this year, a stark contrast to Sinner’s consistent performances, as the Italian made it at least to the quarterfinals in every tournament he entered.

In a candid moment, Alcaraz admitted to the press that Sinner has indeed been a step ahead of him this season. Reflecting on his own performance, Alcaraz said, “It doesn’t matter that I have beaten Jannik three times. Probably I didn’t play good tennis in some tournaments. My win percentage is high, but Jannik is at another level this year—over 91% wins. Only a few players have achieved that consistency before.” He emphasized his aim for 2025: “I think every player wants to be more consistent throughout the year. In the tournaments where I didn’t go as far as I wanted, I’ll try to do better. I want to avoid early exits in the rounds I struggled with this season.”

Alcaraz’s season isn’t over just yet, as he sets his sights on two remaining goals: the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin and the Davis Cup Finals in Malaga. His performance in Turin could be pivotal, as he will need to adapt quickly to the conditions on indoor hard courts—a surface that hasn’t always favored his playing style. Last year, he reached the semifinals but lost to Novak Djokovic, and his overall performance was subpar for his standards. This year, his path in Turin could be complicated if he drops in the ATP rankings. Currently sitting at world number 2, Alcaraz may be overtaken by Alexander Zverev if the German reaches the final of the Paris Masters. Zverev, known for his strength on fast surfaces and strong serve, has previously excelled in Turin, winning the ATP Finals in 2021 by defeating Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev. Should Zverev take the number two spot, Alcaraz would be relegated to third, making a potential group-stage matchup with Sinner in Turin more likely—a scenario that would no doubt add intensity to the year-end tournament.

Looking beyond Turin, Alcaraz will also aim to lead Spain to victory in the Davis Cup Finals in Malaga. Representing his country has always been a source of pride for Alcaraz, and the Davis Cup offers him another opportunity to showcase his talents on an international stage. As he wraps up his remarkable 2024 season, Alcaraz’s fans eagerly await to see if he can finish strong and reclaim some of the momentum that helped define his incredible year. Regardless of the rankings, Carlos Alcaraz has made a lasting mark on the 2024 tennis season and will undoubtedly continue to be a major force in the years to come.

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