On a gripping Saturday at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart, Germany, April 19, 2025, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka surged into her fourth final in five years, defeating Italy’s Jasmine Paolini 7-5, 6-4 in a hard-fought semifinal. The Belarusian’s relentless power and newfound composure on the indoor clay courts have her on the brink of a long-sought triumph, having fallen short in three previous finals. Reflecting on her past defeats, Sabalenka had declared earlier in the week, “I lost three finals against World No. 1s. So I was, like, ‘Okay, I have to do it. I have to come back here as World No. 1. Maybe that’s the deal.’” Now, as the top-ranked player, she faces Jelena Ostapenko in the Easter Monday final, hoping her prediction of breaking the Stuttgart curse will come true.
Sabalenka’s journey to the final has been a blend of dominance and serendipity. As the top seed, she received a first-round bye, and her second-round opponent, Anastasia Potapova, withdrew due to injury, gifting Sabalenka a walkover into the quarterfinals. “It’s a bit awkward,” Sabalenka admitted, acknowledging the unusual circumstance of advancing without playing. Yet, she seized the opportunity, dispatching Elise Mertens 6-4, 6-1 in the quarterfinals, despite a contentious moment when she photographed a disputed ball mark, earning a warning for unsportsmanlike conduct. “When I gave her a handshake, there was a very interesting look and a very strong handshake. Never had it before,” she quipped about her exchange with umpire Miriam Bley, showcasing her ability to stay focused amidst drama.
The semifinal against Paolini tested Sabalenka’s resilience. The Italian, fresh off upsetting Coco Gauff, brought speed and variety, pushing Sabalenka to the edge in a tight first set. Trailing 4-3, Sabalenka regrouped, breaking back and clinching the set 7-5 with a barrage of winners. The second set saw Paolini fight valiantly, but Sabalenka’s 36 winners and eight consecutive victories in Stuttgart this season proved too much. “I’m happy to be back,” Sabalenka had said upon arriving, eager to rediscover her clay-court rhythm after a 10-month hiatus. Her performance, backed by a season that includes titles in Brisbane and Miami, signals a player peaking at the right moment.
Sabalenka’s Stuttgart history is a tale of near-misses. In 2021, she fell to Ashleigh Barty, and in 2022 and 2023, Iga Swiatek denied her the title, including a 6-2, 6-2 rout in the latter. “Of course I have it in mind. It was three tough matches,” Sabalenka noted, viewing those losses as fuel. Her hunger is palpable as she eyes the Porsche Taycan prize and a first clay title since Madrid 2021. Standing in her way is Ostapenko, who stunned Swiatek 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 in the quarterfinals, extending her 6-0 head-to-head over the Pole. Ostapenko’s 29 winners and aggressive play make her a dangerous foe, but Sabalenka leads their rivalry 3-2, including a 6-2, 6-4 win at the 2023 Italian Open.
The final, set for April 21, promises fireworks. Sabalenka’s explosive groundstrokes and improved serving—she’s cut down on double faults since her 2022 struggles—suit the faster indoor clay. “I’ll be hungry as ever, and I’ll be focused as never before,” she vowed, her determination evident. Ostapenko, with her own fearless style, will counter with blistering pace, having declared, “I think I was fighting until the very last point.” Fans on social media buzzed with excitement, one noting, “Sabalenka into the final of the Stuttgart Open for the fourth time in five years. Will face Jelena Ostapenko in the final.” Another praised her consistency, calling it her “36th career final.”
Sabalenka’s 2025 season, with 23 wins in 27 matches, underscores her dominance, though losses to Madison Keys and Mirra Andreeva in other finals linger. Stuttgart offers a chance to shed the runner-up label and cement her clay-court credentials before Roland Garros. “I feel good and can’t wait to start playing on clay,” she said early in the week, her enthusiasm undimmed. As the tennis world watches, Sabalenka’s prediction hangs in the balance—will her fourth Stuttgart final be the charm, or will Ostapenko spoil the script?