The 2024 Paris Masters draw has been released, and all eyes are on Carlos Alcaraz, who enters the tournament as one of the top contenders for the title. Currently, Alcaraz has a 4-3 record at this event, and he’ll be aiming to elevate his performance and add a Paris Masters title to his impressive collection. The Spaniard is in excellent form, having experienced a dream season with major victories at both the French Open and Wimbledon, alongside a silver medal at the Olympics.
However, not everything went smoothly for Alcaraz this year. His surprising second-round exit from the US Open served as a wake-up call, reminding him of the challenges of maintaining consistency at the highest level. He responded brilliantly to this setback, embarking on a 12-match winning streak that included a title run at the China Open and his first-ever quarterfinal appearance at the Shanghai Masters. Now, with the Paris Masters offering a final testing ground before the ATP Finals, Alcaraz will be eager to see how he stacks up against a strong field in his quest for his first Masters title in the French capital. Here’s a detailed breakdown of his potential path to the final:
### **Second Round: Nicolas Jarry or Qualifier**
After receiving a first-round bye, Alcaraz is set to face either Nicolas Jarry or a yet-to-be-determined qualifier. Alcaraz has a narrow 2-1 head-to-head lead over the Chilean, though Jarry won their latest encounter in straight sets at the Argentina Open earlier this season. Importantly, this will be their first match on hard courts, a surface that should favor Alcaraz’s explosive game style. Given his recent form, the Spaniard is the favorite to come out on top, but Jarry’s power and persistence could make for a compelling match.
### **Third Round: Ugo Humbert or Brandon Nakashima**
If Alcaraz advances, he could face either Ugo Humbert or Brandon Nakashima in the third round. Humbert has had a productive season, with two titles and a final appearance under his belt, while Nakashima has displayed his potential with some semifinal finishes. Alcaraz, however, has dominated their past encounters, holding a 2-0 record against Humbert and having won his only match against Nakashima. Both players are known for their ability to compete at a high level, but Alcaraz’s consistency and recent track record against them give him the edge in this matchup.
### **Quarterfinals: Tommy Paul**
In the quarterfinals, Alcaraz is likely to meet American Tommy Paul, who has also enjoyed a strong season, winning three titles, including the Stockholm Open. Paul’s recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, though, as he suffered a first-round exit in Vienna after his Stockholm win. Paul initially led their head-to-head 2-1, but Alcaraz has won their last three meetings, including two victories this season. Alcaraz’s form and growing experience on the big stage suggest he would enter this match as the favorite, but Paul’s athleticism and baseline consistency mean he could still pose a challenge.
### **Semifinals: Daniil Medvedev or Grigor Dimitrov**
The semifinals could bring a potential showdown with either Daniil Medvedev or Grigor Dimitrov, both of whom have been competitive forces this season. Medvedev, a former Paris Masters champion, has a somewhat disappointing 1-7 record against top-five players this year, though he has managed to stay consistently within the top ranks. Dimitrov, the runner-up at last year’s Paris Masters, has also performed admirably but struggles against high-ranking players with a 2-4 record this season. Alcaraz has defeated Medvedev three times this year alone, while he managed to beat Dimitrov in Miami. Although both Medvedev and Dimitrov are capable of delivering a high-level match, Alcaraz’s record and superior current form make him the likely favorite to advance.
### **Finals: Jannik Sinner or Other Contenders**
If Alcaraz reaches the final, his most likely opponent is Jannik Sinner, who has been in exceptional form all season. Sinner boasts a remarkable 65-6 record this year, capturing seven titles and riding an 11-match Masters-level winning streak. Despite his strong form, Alcaraz has been a stumbling block for Sinner, accounting for three of the Italian’s six losses this year. Alcaraz has proven resilient in their encounters, often mounting comebacks to secure victory. That said, Sinner did manage to defeat Alcaraz in the Six Kings Slam final in Saudi Arabia, though that was an exhibition event. If Sinner is unable to make it to the final, other players like Taylor Fritz, former Paris champion Holger Rune, Lorenzo Musetti, Jack Draper, or Alexander Zverev could pose a challenge. While Alcaraz would be favored against most of these players, each of them has the capability to deliver an upset.
### **Other Possible Threats and Alcaraz’s Preparation**
The Paris Masters will also feature in-form players such as Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune, both of whom could make deep runs. Fritz has shown flashes of brilliance this season, and his powerful serve could be an asset on the fast courts in Paris. Meanwhile, Rune’s resilience and all-court game have established him as a consistent threat on the ATP Tour. Lorenzo Musetti and Jack Draper are also emerging talents with an eye on a strong performance, while Alexander Zverev, a seasoned player with Masters-level experience, could also pose a challenge. Each of these competitors will have their sights set on a potential matchup with Alcaraz, and they’re all capable of making the final stages of the event.
Alcaraz, however, will enter with confidence, not only because of his stellar season but due to his ability to adapt and overcome. His impressive record this year, combined with his mental toughness and drive to bounce back after setbacks, positions him as one of the primary contenders for the Paris Masters title. With the ATP Finals on the horizon, this tournament will serve as both a litmus test and a crucial preparation ground as he seeks to close out the season on a high note. Alcaraz’s journey in Paris will certainly be one to watch as he strives to add another prestigious trophy to his growing collection.