Aryna Sabalenka, the reigning Australian Open and US Open champion, is now just one victory away from securing the coveted year-end World No. 1 ranking. The Belarusian has enjoyed an unbeaten start to her campaign at the 2024 WTA Finals, maintaining her perfect record with a 6-3, 7-5 win over fourth seed Jasmine Paolini on Tuesday, putting her in a prime position to finish the year at the top of the rankings.
The world No. 1 displayed impressive resilience against Paolini, rallying from a break down in the second set and saving two set points to close out the match in straight sets. This victory came just days after Sabalenka defeated Zheng Qinwen 6-3, 6-4 in her opening match of the round-robin stage, and while her path to victory wasn’t without challenges, her consistency and ability to remain focused under pressure were key to her success.
### Sabalenka’s Tough Victory Against Paolini
In her post-match interview, Sabalenka reflected on the difficulty of her encounter with Paolini, who was no push-over. The Italian put the world No. 1 under significant pressure throughout the match, especially in the second set, when she had opportunities to force a decider. Paolini’s serve was on point, and her movement on the court was exceptional, forcing Sabalenka to work hard for every point.
“Overall, the whole match was a tough match. She’s such a great player,” Sabalenka said of Paolini after the match. “She was putting so much pressure [on me] and serving well, moving great. She’s a great player, and I’m super happy with this win.”
Sabalenka’s mental fortitude was on full display in the second set, when Paolini had set points and the Belarusian looked at risk of losing momentum. However, Sabalenka dug deep, showing her trademark fighting spirit, which has been a hallmark of her career this season. “The second set was quite tricky. Honestly, I don’t know – I was just trying to show her that I was going to fight for this set no matter what. I’m really happy to close this match in straight sets,” she explained.
### Sabalenka’s Path to Year-End No. 1
With two opening victories under her belt, Sabalenka is now in the driver’s seat to finish the year as the World No. 1. Her next opponent, Elena Rybakina, will be crucial in determining whether she can clinch the ranking in Riyadh. Sabalenka will secure the year-end No. 1 ranking if she beats Rybakina in their upcoming round-robin match, no matter what happens in the rest of the tournament. This would ensure that Sabalenka remains at the top of the WTA rankings heading into the new season, a significant achievement for the 26-year-old.
Even if Sabalenka loses to Rybakina, she is still in control of her destiny. Sabalenka has already qualified for the semifinals of the WTA Finals, and regardless of her performance in the final group-stage match, if she reaches the final of the tournament, she will automatically secure the No. 1 ranking.
The race for World No. 1 remains tight, but with only two matches left for Sabalenka in the group stage, her fate lies largely in her own hands. However, her closest rival, Iga Swiatek, still holds out hope of overtaking Sabalenka, though the Polish star faces a much steeper challenge this year compared to last.
### Swiatek’s Challenge to Regain No. 1 Spot
Swiatek, the 2023 WTA Finals champion, has a narrow window of opportunity to reclaim the World No. 1 ranking, but her path to the top is considerably more complicated than it was 12 months ago. Last year, Swiatek surged to the WTA Finals title without dropping a set, and in doing so, she was able to dethrone Sabalenka from the No. 1 spot. This time around, however, the scenario is quite different.
Swiatek has already won her opening match at the WTA Finals, defeating Barbora Krejcikova in straight sets, and will need to continue her winning streak to have any hope of displacing Sabalenka. However, for Swiatek to finish the year as the World No. 1, a series of events must unfold in her favor.
First and foremost, Swiatek must win the WTA Finals without losing another match. This means she must not only win all of her remaining group-stage matches but also make it through the semifinals and finals unscathed. But even if Swiatek manages to achieve this feat, it still may not be enough to climb back to the top spot if Sabalenka wins even one more match in Riyadh.
In a scenario where Swiatek wins the title, Sabalenka must lose her next match against Rybakina and also suffer a defeat in her semifinal. Only then would Swiatek have a chance to overtake her Belarusian rival in the WTA rankings.
### A Closer Look at the Head-to-Head: Sabalenka vs. Rybakina
Sabalenka’s next match against Elena Rybakina is set to be a pivotal one. Rybakina, who has been in impressive form this season, is capable of causing an upset, and she will certainly be looking to make life difficult for Sabalenka. The two players have a competitive rivalry, with Sabalenka leading their head-to-head 6-3. However, Rybakina has shown that she can handle the pressure in big matches, as evidenced by her Wimbledon victory earlier this year.
In their previous encounters, Rybakina’s powerful serve and aggressive baseline game have often been a tough challenge for Sabalenka. However, Sabalenka’s own high-intensity game and strong mental approach have allowed her to get the better of Rybakina in most of their previous meetings. Their clash at the WTA Finals will be crucial, not just for Sabalenka’s ranking hopes but also for both players’ confidence as they head into the business end of the tournament.
### Sabalenka’s Consistency and Mental Toughness
One of the key factors behind Sabalenka’s incredible rise to World No. 1 this season has been her consistency and mental toughness. The Belarusian has shown an ability to stay focused in high-pressure situations, and her performance at the WTA Finals thus far has been a testament to that.
Sabalenka’s level-headed approach to the game, even when faced with challenges, has allowed her to maintain her position at the top of the rankings. Her dominant wins over Zheng Qinwen and Jasmine Paolini are examples of her ability to execute under pressure, even when things don’t go according to plan. As she looks to secure the year-end No. 1 ranking, Sabalenka knows that consistency will be key.
“I just try to stay focused on what I can control, and that’s my game,” Sabalenka explained after her win over Paolini. “I try to push myself to play my best tennis and stay as focused as possible, no matter what the situation is on the court.”
### The Final Stretch in Riyadh
With two victories already in hand, Sabalenka is in an enviable position to secure the World No. 1 ranking for the first time in her career. But there are still hurdles to overcome, and her final round-robin match against Rybakina is the first of them.
Whether or not Sabalenka can seal the deal in Riyadh, her incredible season has already established her as one of the sport’s premier players, and her rivalry with Iga Swiatek continues to fuel excitement in the women’s game. The next few days in Riyadh will determine if Sabalenka can close out her historic year with the ultimate prize — the World No. 1 ranking.