Carlos Alcaraz facing huge threat of a rankings collapse unless he finds his best form

In the high-stakes world of professional tennis, where every match can shift the landscape of the ATP rankings, Carlos Alcaraz finds himself at a critical juncture. The 21-year-old Spaniard, a four-time Grand Slam champion and former world No. 1, is teetering on the edge of a potential rankings collapse as his 2025 season stumbles out of the gate. After a stunning loss in his opening match at the Miami Open on March 23, 2025, Alcaraz’s grip on his current No. 3 spot is loosening, and unless he rediscovers the electrifying form that propelled him to the pinnacle of the sport, he could face a dramatic slide down the rankings ladder.

The Miami Open was supposed to be a chance for Alcaraz to regroup after a patchy start to the year, but instead, it became the latest chapter in a troubling narrative. Facing David Goffin, a seasoned Belgian ranked outside the top 100, Alcaraz fell apart in a 6-2, 6-4 defeat that left fans and analysts reeling. “How am I feeling? Dreadful,” he confessed afterward, his voice tinged with frustration and disbelief. “Dreadful because of this defeat and because this is a tournament I always want to do well at, and losing my first match hurts.” For a player who stormed to the Miami title in 2022 at just 18, this early exit was a stark contrast to the dominance he’s shown in the past, raising urgent questions about his current mental and physical state.

Alcaraz’s struggles aren’t new this year. Since clinching back-to-back majors at the French Open and Wimbledon in 2024, his form has been inconsistent, marred by early exits in Cincinnati, the US Open, Shanghai, Paris, and the ATP Finals. While he managed a title in Rotterdam and a semifinal run at Indian Wells earlier this month, these flashes of brilliance have been overshadowed by a string of unexpected losses. The Miami defeat was particularly costly—had he advanced, he could have overtaken Alexander Zverev for the No. 2 spot, especially with world No. 1 Jannik Sinner sidelined by a suspension until May. Instead, Alcaraz now faces the grim reality of defending a mountain of points from his 2024 Grand Slam triumphs, a task that looks daunting given his recent performances.

The numbers tell a sobering story. Alcaraz currently holds 8,810 ranking points, but 4,000 of those come from his Roland Garros and Wimbledon victories last summer. If he fails to replicate that success—or at least come close—when those points drop off in June and July, he could plummet out of the top 10 entirely. “This first part of the season, I said that I felt I was playing good tennis. I was feeling good, but after this defeat, I don’t know what to say,” he admitted post-match, his usual confidence replaced by uncertainty. The clay season, where he’s historically thrived, looms as a make-or-break moment, but time is running out to find the spark that’s been missing.

What’s gone wrong for the young superstar? Alcaraz insists it’s not physical. “I did everything right before the match; it wasn’t a question of an injury or any other pain; I was fine before the match,” he said. Yet, his play suggested otherwise—fatigue crept in during the second set against Goffin, and unforced errors piled up, a far cry from the relentless energy that once overwhelmed opponents. Mentally, he’s admitted to feeling the weight of expectations, a burden that’s grown heavier with each upset. “I’m not sure whether, in the coming days, I’ll analyze it or try to forget about it. We’ll see,” he added, hinting at a crossroads in how he’ll approach this slump.

For now, the tennis world watches with bated breath. Alcaraz’s next moves—starting with the clay-court swing—will determine whether he can halt this slide and reclaim his place among the elite, or if 2025 will mark the year his meteoric rise hit a wall. The threat is real, but so is his talent. The question is whether he can summon it in time.