Laura Robson explains where she thinks Aryna Sabalenka went wrong in her WTA Finals defeat to Elena Rybakina

World number one Aryna Sabalenka was handed an unexpected defeat by Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina in the final round of the group stage at the 2023 WTA Finals in Riyadh. The result was particularly surprising given Sabalenka’s dominant form leading into the event and her impressive consistency throughout the year. However, despite the setback, Sabalenka had already secured her place in the semifinals as the top seed from her group, leaving Rybakina’s victory with limited impact on the standings but providing important lessons for Sabalenka as she moves forward in the tournament.

This defeat marked Sabalenka’s second loss in her last 24 matches, an extraordinary run of form that has included major titles and a near-unstoppable level of play throughout the second half of 2023. However, in the match against Rybakina, Sabalenka, who had previously dominated the Belarusian’s head-to-head with a 6-3 record, fell 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, handing Rybakina her second win over Sabalenka this year, following their victory in the Brisbane final earlier in January.

For Rybakina, the victory had little consequence in terms of advancing to the next stage of the competition. The 2022 Wimbledon champion had already been eliminated from the tournament after losing her first two group matches, despite her strong performance in this one. As the underdog heading into the WTA Finals due to an injury-riddled season, including a back issue that forced her to miss the US Open, Rybakina’s win over the top-ranked Sabalenka was a significant personal achievement but didn’t alter the tournament’s overall dynamics.

Despite the loss, Sabalenka’s place in the semifinals was already secured by her earlier victories over China’s Qinwen Zheng and Italy’s Jasmine Paolini, both of which were straight-set triumphs. Sabalenka has had an outstanding season, collecting three major titles in the last few months, and remains a contender to end the year as the WTA Finals champion. However, her defeat to Rybakina raised questions about her ability to maintain focus during critical moments, especially after having already clinched her top ranking for the year.

### Rybakina’s Free-Flowing Tennis

While Sabalenka’s loss raised some eyebrows, Rybakina’s performance was a testament to her mental freedom and relaxed approach to the match. With no pressure to perform after already being eliminated from the tournament, Rybakina played with an air of confidence, striking the ball beautifully and taking full advantage of her opponent’s lapses in concentration.

Speaking after the match, Rybakina was pleased with her level of play, noting how she was able to find her rhythm and feel confident on the court despite the high stakes for Sabalenka. “It was one of those matches where I felt free, and I just wanted to play my best tennis without worrying about the outcome,” Rybakina said. Her aggressive style of play was on full display, and her ability to overpower Sabalenka with relentless ball striking, especially in the third set, was a clear indication of her skill and composure under pressure.

On the other hand, Sabalenka, who had looked unstoppable earlier in the tournament, appeared to lose her focus in the final set. After taking the second set comfortably and leveling the match, she was unable to maintain the same intensity in the decider. Unforced errors began to creep into her game, and she failed to execute on key moments, allowing Rybakina to break early and maintain control of the set. Sabalenka’s frustration was evident as she struggled to regain her rhythm, losing the third set 6-1.

### Analysis: Why Sabalenka Lost Focus

Former British tennis star Laura Robson, speaking on Sky Sports, provided some insightful analysis on why Sabalenka might have faltered in the final set. “It was a bit of a free match for Rybakina. She had nothing to lose and could just go out there and play relaxed, which she did,” Robson explained. “On the other hand, Sabalenka seemed to lose her concentration in that third set, and a few unforced errors gave Rybakina an early break, which she couldn’t recover from.”

Robson’s analysis points to the psychological aspect of the match. For Rybakina, the match was an opportunity to enjoy the moment and test herself against the world number one without any external pressure. For Sabalenka, however, the loss came at a time when her ranking had already been secured, and she may have struggled to maintain the same level of intensity as she did in her earlier matches, where every point mattered in the race for the top spot.

### Warning Signs or Just a Blip?

Despite the result, many experts believe Sabalenka’s loss to Rybakina should not be seen as a major cause for concern. The Belarusian has been in phenomenal form throughout 2023, and this defeat is just a single blip in an otherwise stellar season. However, there are certain warning signs that could affect her chances in the semifinals and beyond.

Firstly, the loss highlighted that Sabalenka still has work to do when it comes to maintaining focus, particularly when she is already assured of her position. Mental sharpness and consistency are crucial in the pressure-cooker environment of the WTA Finals, where every match is pivotal and the stakes are high. Sabalenka will need to address these lapses in concentration if she is to challenge for the title.

Moreover, her loss to Rybakina underscores an important fact: Rybakina, with her hard-hitting, aggressive game, is one of the few players who can truly match Sabalenka’s intensity. While Sabalenka has dominated the hard courts in 2023, Rybakina’s power game can throw her off balance, as we saw in the final set. This is something Sabalenka will need to be mindful of when facing other big-hitters like Coco Gauff or Iga Swiatek in the later stages of the WTA Finals, or when looking ahead to 2024.

### Gauff: The Rising Contender

As the tournament progresses, one of Sabalenka’s biggest threats may come from 19-year-old American Coco Gauff, who has been on an impressive run of form in recent months. Gauff’s steady rise through the rankings has been marked by a newfound consistency, and she has emerged as one of the most dangerous players on the WTA Tour. Gauff’s recent win over Iga Swiatek has raised her profile even further, and with the semifinals looming, she is one of the players to watch.

If Sabalenka and Gauff were to meet in the final, it would be a rematch of their thrilling Australian Open final earlier this year, where Sabalenka claimed her first major title. Gauff is improving with each match, and the pair’s rivalry will add an extra layer of excitement to the latter stages of the WTA Finals. Sabalenka will need to sharpen her focus and be ready to take on the challenge that Gauff and the other top players will undoubtedly present.

### Conclusion: A Minor Setback in a Stellar Year

While Aryna Sabalenka’s loss to Elena Rybakina in the final group match of the WTA Finals raised some eyebrows, it should not overshadow what has been an extraordinary year for the Belarusian. Sabalenka has been in outstanding form throughout 2023, winning multiple titles and cementing her place at the top of the WTA rankings. Despite this minor setback, she remains one of the favorites to win the WTA Finals and finish the year with yet another major achievement. However, as the tournament moves into its crucial stages, Sabalenka will need to tighten her focus, adjust her mindset, and be prepared for the challenges posed by her formidable competitors, including Rybakina, Gauff, and others. The coming days will provide the ultimate test for the world number one, and how she responds will determine whether 2023 ends on a high or a low.

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