The battle to finish the 2023 WTA Tour season as world No. 1 was decisively claimed by Aryna Sabalenka, but a new set of tennis rankings—the alternative UTR (Universal Tennis Rating)—reveals that the Belarusian star may face serious competition for the top spot heading into 2024. Despite Sabalenka’s impressive season, which included major victories at both the Australian Open and US Open, the alternative rankings suggest that the 25-year-old might not have such a clear path to remaining the best in the world.
Sabalenka’s dominant performances throughout the WTA Tour season secured her the No. 1 spot in the official year-end rankings. Her year was capped by a stellar finish at the WTA Finals, where she was already confirmed as the No. 1 player before even stepping onto the court for her final match. However, Sabalenka’s quest for the prestigious end-of-year title in Riyadh was thwarted by an inspiring Coco Gauff, who beat the Belarusian in a thrilling semi-final in Saudi Arabia. This defeat in Riyadh showed that Sabalenka, while undeniably the best over the course of the season, still has stiff competition on the WTA Tour.
Coco Gauff, who had an excellent year in 2024, went on to face a rising star in the final: Zheng Qinwen. The Chinese player was one of the standout performers in women’s tennis in 2024, showcasing not only her immense talent but also her consistency at the highest levels of the sport. Zheng’s performances were nothing short of spectacular; she won an Olympic gold medal in Paris, proving her ability to deliver when the stakes are highest, and confirmed her place as one of the most consistent players on the circuit. Her year also included impressive runs at major tournaments, such as reaching the final of the Australian Open in January, and the quarter-finals of the US Open, where she put up strong performances against some of the top seeds.
Further adding to her incredible 2024 season, Zheng was also a force at the China Open and the Wuhan Open, reaching the semi-finals in Beijing and the final in Wuhan. These results further solidified her place among the elite of women’s tennis, and by the end of the year, she had earned a total of $5,559,555 in prize money. Zheng finished 2024 as the world No. 5, but perhaps more importantly, she has surged to the top of the alternative UTR rankings, a list that has been gaining increasing attention as a more immediate reflection of a player’s current form.
The UTR Rating system, endorsed by tennis great Novak Djokovic, calculates rankings based on recent performances, rather than the more traditional method of year-long results used in the WTA and ATP rankings. This gives the UTR a more dynamic approach, which many believe provides a more accurate and up-to-date measure of a player’s form, especially for players who have had breakthroughs later in the season. In the UTR system, victories against higher-ranked opponents are weighted more heavily, offering a clearer picture of current competitive standings.
One of the key aspects of the UTR system is that it focuses on a player’s most recent performances, rather than considering their results over a full calendar year. This makes it a more precise tool for understanding a player’s immediate form and impact on the tour. The UTR rating is open to all players, regardless of gender, age, or geographical location, and ranks players on a scale between 1.00 and 16.50, based purely on match results.
Zheng’s rise to No. 1 in the UTR rankings is a testament to the power of this system, which provides a fresh perspective on a player’s standing within the game. Coco Gauff’s stunning win against both Sabalenka and Zheng in the WTA Finals in Riyadh also had an impact on her UTR ranking, seeing her leap up to No. 2 in the list. Gauff’s victory was significant not just for her trophy collection but also because it highlighted her ongoing development and readiness to challenge for the top spot.
Meanwhile, Iga Świątek, who remains a dominant figure on the WTA Tour, occupies the No. 3 position in the UTR rankings, behind Gauff. Sabalenka, despite being the official world No. 1, is ranked No. 4 on the UTR list, just ahead of Elena Rybakina, another player who has been a consistent performer and who’s expected to continue rising through the ranks in 2024. This ranking order, which includes such notable names as Paula Badosa (No. 6), Karolina Muchová (No. 7), Emma Navarro (No. 8), Jessica Pegula (No. 9), and Mirra Andreeva (No. 10), shows that the women’s game is incredibly competitive, with a number of players in close contention for the top spots.
The UTR rankings have also sparked debate over the current state of the women’s tennis hierarchy. Many have noted that, despite her year-end No. 1 position in the official WTA rankings, Sabalenka’s low position in the UTR list is notable and raises questions about the accuracy of year-end rankings that rely heavily on cumulative results over a long period. This dynamic approach to rankings also provides an opportunity for players like Emma Raducanu, who has struggled with injuries and inconsistent results in the past, to be better represented. Raducanu, who is currently ranked No. 25 in the UTR standings, has shown solid form in 2024, including a strong performance at the Billie Jean King Cup, where she won all three of her singles matches in the finals. Her UTR ranking of No. 25 suggests that she is much higher in terms of current form than her official WTA ranking of No. 58 would imply.
Interestingly, the UTR ratings also highlight the position of Katie Boulter, another British player who sits just ahead of Raducanu at No. 24 in the list. These rankings demonstrate that, while Raducanu may not yet have the consistency to challenge the top players over the course of a full season, her current form puts her much closer to the elite than her WTA ranking suggests.
As always, the UTR ratings stir plenty of debate within the tennis community, and the fact that Sabalenka’s position on the list is a hot topic just as much as Zheng’s rise to No. 1 only underscores the differing opinions on how player rankings should be calculated. With the 2024 season fast approaching, all eyes will be on these rankings to see how they evolve and whether players like Zheng, Gauff, and Raducanu can continue their impressive progress. With Sabalenka still holding the top spot in the official WTA rankings, however, it’s clear that there’s more than one way to evaluate success in tennis, and the alternative rankings offer a fascinating glimpse into the sport’s current landscape.