For the second consecutive year, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka are set to compete for the prestigious year-end No. 1 ranking at the WTA Finals. The high-stakes showdown between these tennis powerhouses brings renewed excitement to this year’s season-ending championships in Riyadh. Last year, the two found themselves in a similar position when Sabalenka, initially leading the ranking, was overtaken by Swiatek, who put on a flawless performance to claim the top spot.
This time, however, Sabalenka returns to the finals with a more substantial lead, and with it, the title of the favorite to enter 2025 as the world’s top-ranked player. But while Sabalenka’s lead is significant, Swiatek remains in the running, with a mathematical chance of seizing the ranking. Let’s explore the points breakdown, head-to-head advantages, and potential scenarios that could lead to either player capturing the coveted No. 1 spot.
### Current Standings and Points Breakdown
With last year’s Finals points recently removed from the rankings, Sabalenka currently leads the rankings with 9,016 points, creating a significant gap over Swiatek, who holds 7,910 points. Neither player has any points to defend in Riyadh, meaning that their performance at the Finals will dictate their ranking with a “clean slate” perspective.
The WTA Finals tournament format operates uniquely with its round-robin structure, which ensures each player participates in at least three matches before elimination. Each round-robin win yields 200 points, meaning a player can earn up to 600 points by winning all three group-stage matches. Success in the semifinals adds another 400 points, bringing the total potential points for an undefeated champion to 1,500, enough for either Sabalenka or Swiatek to make a statement in the rankings.
### Sabalenka’s Advantage and Path to Retain No. 1
Sabalenka is positioned comfortably with a 1,106-point lead over Swiatek. This margin gives her a solid cushion as she heads into the tournament, especially compared to last year’s more precarious 630-point lead. As it stands, Sabalenka can secure her place at the top simply by winning all three of her group-stage matches, which would boost her total to 9,616 points—a number that Swiatek cannot surpass, even with an undefeated run.
If Sabalenka performs well in the round robin, she will control her fate without depending on Swiatek’s results. However, should she falter in a few matches or fall short of the finals, Swiatek could mount a comeback to reclaim No. 1. Sabalenka’s draw may favor her efforts: she’s grouped with Jasmine Paolini, Elena Rybakina, and Zheng Qinwen. The Belarusian holds a 12-5 overall record against these players, underscoring her status as the likely favorite in her initial matches. Sabalenka will first face Zheng Qinwen, a matchup she’s expected to manage well based on their previous encounters.
### Swiatek’s Challenge: A Steeper Climb to No. 1
For Swiatek, the path to reclaim the top spot is more complicated and requires nothing less than championship-level results. To have any chance, Swiatek must win the title, as even a loss in the semifinals or during the round robin would eliminate her from the No. 1 race. A perfect run, including winning all three group-stage matches and capturing the title, would give her a maximum of 9,470 points, positioning her just ahead of Sabalenka should the latter lose in the early stages.
Swiatek’s draw in Riyadh appears manageable, though it comes with challenges of its own. She is set to face Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, and Barbora Krejcikova. Swiatek holds an impressive 11-1 record over Gauff, giving her confidence in that matchup. Pegula, however, recently defeated Swiatek in the US Open quarterfinals and poses a significant threat, given her strong form this season. Krejcikova, another formidable opponent, adds a layer of difficulty to Swiatek’s path. However, if she can advance through these matchups with only one loss in the round robin, Swiatek will maintain her ability to challenge for the title and potentially reclaim the No. 1 spot.
### The Scenarios in Play
Swiatek’s ability to overtake Sabalenka will depend on a few specific scenarios. Here’s how each potential outcome could impact the No. 1 race:
1. **Swiatek Goes Undefeated and Wins the Title:** If Swiatek wins all three group-stage matches and lifts the trophy, she would accumulate 1,500 points, pushing her final total to 9,470 points. In this case, Sabalenka would need to win all three group matches to stay ahead. If Sabalenka wins only one or two matches and fails to reach the final, Swiatek will end the year as No. 1.
2. **Swiatek Wins the Title with a 2-1 Group Stage Record:** Should Swiatek drop one group-stage match but still win the title, she would earn 9,270 points. For this scenario to secure the No. 1 spot, Sabalenka would need to win only one match and not reach the final.
3. **Swiatek Wins the Title with One Group Win:** If Swiatek wins just one group-stage match before winning the title, she will end with a total of 9,070 points. For Swiatek to capture No. 1 in this case, Sabalenka would need to lose all three group matches and fail to advance.
4. **Sabalenka Advances and Reaches the Finals:** If Sabalenka reaches the finals or wins all group-stage matches, she effectively eliminates Swiatek’s chances of taking over the top ranking. This is the simplest path for Sabalenka to secure her position and enter 2025 as the No. 1 player in the world.
### The Stakes in Riyadh and the Future of Women’s Tennis
As both players head into the Finals, the stakes extend beyond the No. 1 ranking; they symbolize a broader rivalry that has come to define the current era in women’s tennis. Swiatek, with her unique blend of power and precision, has been a formidable presence on the tour since her breakout. Meanwhile, Sabalenka’s aggressive style and mental resilience have made her one of the most dangerous players to face. The contrasting styles and personalities of these two have fueled a dynamic competition that brings excitement to fans around the world.
Looking ahead, the WTA Finals in Riyadh represent a new chapter for both Swiatek and Sabalenka. For Sabalenka, it is an opportunity to solidify her status as the current best in the world and build momentum heading into next year. For Swiatek, it’s a chance to reassert her position at the top and prove she can still dominate on the game’s biggest stages.
Ultimately, the outcome of the WTA Finals will have a lasting impact on both players’ legacies and set the tone for 2024. Whether Sabalenka manages to hold her lead or Swiatek pulls off another remarkable comeback, this tournament promises to be a fitting finale to an intense season in women’s tennis.