Aryna Sabalenka has officially taken over as World No. 1, dethroning Iga Swiatek this week after a series of remarkable victories that have propelled her to the top of the rankings. Sabalenka, who has been a rising force in women’s tennis over the past few years, managed to close the gap on Swiatek with her impressive performances at key tournaments, including triumphs at the Cincinnati Open, the US Open, and the Wuhan Open. In contrast, Swiatek chose to skip the entire Asian swing of the WTA tour, a decision that has contributed to her fall from the top spot.
Sabalenka’s recent win at the Wuhan Open, her third consecutive title at the venue, cemented her position as one of the most dominant players on the circuit this season. At that point, she was trailing her Polish rival by only a handful of points, with 9,716 points to her name compared to Swiatek’s 9,785. Both players had been neck-and-neck in the race for the top spot in recent months, but this week’s events ultimately tipped the balance in Sabalenka’s favor.
One of the key reasons for the recent shake-up in the rankings stems from a new rule introduced by the WTA this year. Players are now required to compete in at least six WTA 500 tournaments throughout the season, and failing to meet this requirement results in a point penalty. While Sabalenka competed in four such tournaments, Swiatek participated in only two, namely the United Cup and the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. As the season winds down, neither player will be able to meet the required six tournaments, meaning both are subject to the zero-pointer penalty.
This penalty effectively nullified each player’s lowest score from a previous tournament that counted toward their ranking. For Swiatek, this meant losing 120 points earned from her fourth-round appearance at the Miami Open, while Sabalenka forfeited just 10 points from her second-round exit at the Qatar Open. After these deductions, Sabalenka’s points total dropped to 9,706, while Swiatek’s tally decreased to 9,665, allowing Sabalenka to reclaim the top ranking.
This marks Sabalenka’s second stint as World No. 1, having first reached the summit after the conclusion of the US Open in 2023. She held the position for eight weeks before being overtaken by Swiatek. Now, Sabalenka begins her ninth week at the top, and with the season nearing its end, she appears to be in a strong position to finish the year as the World No. 1 for the first time in her career.
However, the rankings are still subject to further changes in the coming weeks as both players will drop more points due to their absence from mandatory WTA 500 events. Sabalenka is set to lose 65 points from her third-round finish at the Miami Open, reducing her total to 9,641 next week. Swiatek, meanwhile, will forfeit 195 points from her semifinal showing at the Stuttgart Open, bringing her total down to 9,470.
To add another layer of complexity to the rankings battle, points from the 2023 WTA Finals will soon be removed from both players’ tallies. Swiatek, who won the tournament last year, will lose 1,500 points, while Sabalenka, who reached the semifinals, will lose 625 points. This will give Sabalenka a commanding lead, as she will drop to 9,016 points, while Swiatek will fall to 7,970. With such a significant lead, Sabalenka is in prime position to secure the year-end No. 1 ranking for the first time.
Despite this, Swiatek still has a slim chance to regain the top spot, though she no longer controls her own destiny. The two players will face off at the WTA Finals in 2024, where they will once again battle for the year-end No. 1 ranking. This is not the first time the pair has been in this position; last year’s WTA Finals also saw the two compete for the top spot, with Swiatek ultimately prevailing.
At the 2023 WTA Finals, Swiatek needed to win the tournament without losing a single match in the group stage to finish the year as No. 1, and she accomplished just that. Sabalenka, on the other hand, had the opportunity to stop her but fell short, losing to Swiatek in the semifinals. This time around, however, Sabalenka has the advantage. Even if Swiatek wins the WTA Finals, Sabalenka can still finish the year as World No. 1 by winning at least two of her group-stage matches, a scenario that gives her far more control over her fate compared to last year.
Given that Sabalenka and Swiatek will be the top two seeds at the WTA Finals, they are unlikely to meet before the semifinals. If both players top their respective groups, a showdown in the final could be in the cards. While Swiatek already has a WTA Finals title to her name, Sabalenka is still searching for her first. She came close in 2022 but was defeated by Caroline Garcia in the final. With her current form and momentum, Sabalenka will be eager to add this prestigious title to her resume and cap off an outstanding season.
As the year draws to a close, all eyes will be on the WTA Finals, where the battle for the year-end No. 1 ranking will be decided. Sabalenka’s rise to the top has been nothing short of remarkable, but Swiatek has shown time and again that she can deliver under pressure. The stage is set for another thrilling chapter in their growing rivalry, with the ultimate prize—the title of World No. 1—on the line.